Pueblo, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS65 KPUB 301749
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1149 AM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with another round of showers/isold thunder late
  this afternoon and evening.

- High fire danger Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday from the San
  Luis Valley, east across the Plains. The worst conditions will
  be Tuesday with high wind potential.

- A significant storm system looks to impact southern Colorado
  beginning Friday through the weekend with widespread heavy
  precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 AM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A quick update was made to cool temperatures off 3-5 degrees
across the plains this afternoon where a combination of morning
cloud cover along with increasing cloud cover from the west
this afternoon should keep temperatures on the cooler side of
model blends. Otherwise, stratus will be slow to break across
southern El Paso county due to persistent southeasterly upslope
flow. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the mountains and spread eastward across the plains this
afternoon associated with the next disturbance. High res models
still favor El Paso county and northern portions of the
southeast plains for precipitation chances through tonight.
Have made some adjustments to pops accordingly. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Currently...

A shortwave was exiting the region early this morning, with a area
of showers over the palmer divide moving east towards KS. other
isold showers were still noted over the western slope. Quite a bit
of clouds were noted over a good part of the plains, with the
valleys and s mtns mostly clear. Temps at 2 AM were in the 30s to
around 40F, with 20s in the valley and mtns.

Today...

Early AM showers will continue moving east and expect all of the
activity to be in KS prior to sunrise. With the cool front south
of the region, temps today will be somewhat cooler than
yesterday, with max temps on the plains expected to be in the 55
to 65 range with 50s in teh valleys and 30s in the mtns.

Another weaker short wave will cross the region in the strong
westerly flow aloft. Precip with this wave is expected to be more
scattered/lighter than last evenings event, but will fall in the
same general area...mostly along and north of US 50. Some thunder
will be possible late tomorrow afternoon and evening, especially
over the Pikes Peak region. Some small hail can`t be ruled out.

Tonight...

Shower activity over the plains will continue to move east
tomorrow evening with the brunt of it over the far eastern
plains by late tomorrow evening. Morning lows by Monday morning
will be in the lower 30s plains with 20s in the valleys/mtns.
/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Models are finally coming into agreement through the extended
period, with the GFS coming around to the ECMWF and the
potential for a significant storm system by late week into the
weekend. Details are still fuzzy this far out, but the potential
exists for longer duration period of heavy precipitation for
southern Colorado.

Monday into Tuesday...an upper level jet will begin to move
into southern Colorado on Monday and strengthen throughout the
day on Tuesday. High fire danger will exist across portion of
the San Luis Valley, southern I-25 corridor and portions of the
Plains on Monday due to gusty winds and low humidity values.
Enhanced mixing will help temperatures warm 60s and lower 70s
across the Plains. Westerly winds will gust 40 to 50 mph across
the San Luis Valley, east into the Plains south of Highway 50
Monday afternoon. A few snow showers will be possible over the
Central Mountains through Monday afternoon, mainly north of
Cottonwood Pass with minor accumulations possible.

The upper jet continues to strengthen Monday night across
Colorado. Model guidance continues to suggest a period during
the late overnight hours of downslope potential along the
southern Sangre de Cristo mountains. However, will wait to see
what higher-resolution guidance picks up on with the 12z runs
(which should begin to see it). Winds will be gusty, though,
Monday night, especially across the higher elevations. Snow will
also be on the increase along the Continental Divide overnight,
with minor accumulations expected through morning.

By Tuesday, the main upper jet is overhead. Strong mixing will
spread across the Plains by late morning, with very strong winds
through the afternoon. Winds will likely gust near 60 mph across
the Plains. In addition, humidity values are expected to fall
near 15 percent, with extremely dangerous fire weather
conditions for most of the Plains. Issued a Fire Weather Watch
for Tuesday to account for these high winds and low humidity
values. Given the strong winds, areas of blowing dust look
likely, which could produce hazardous travel conditions due to
poor visibility, and strong cross winds on north-south highways
including I-25. Temperatures will warm into the 70s across the
region Tuesday afternoon. Persistent moderate snow will continue
along the Continental Divide and could pose a risk to travelers
over the high mountain passes through Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...this period will be a transition time,
with an upper trough taking shape over the western states,
turning flow southwesterly across Colorado with multiple wave
embedded in the flow. Periods of snow will continue over the
Mountains both days, with accumulations possible across the
higher peaks. Across the Plains, a few showers will be possible,
especially Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a wave moves
up from the southwest.

Winds will remain gusty across the Plains on Wednesday with low
humidity values. This will once again lead to high fire danger
for the San Luis Valley and Plains Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will cool on Wednesday, with highs mainly in the
60s, cooling further on Thursday into the 50s.

Friday through Sunday...an upper storm system will strengthen
over the Desert Southwest and slowly move east beginning Friday
and prevailing through the weekend. Model guidance has come into
decent agreement with this storm system, with differences in
details that will matter for southern Colorado. The GFS has
trended very wet through this period, with most of the Plains
seeing QPF amounts near or in excess of 2 inches. The Canadian
is driest, with the ECMWF a bit wetter than the Canadian. The
ECMWF-AI, ICON and NBM are all tightly clustered with QPF
amounts in excess of 1 inch through this period. The main
question will be temperatures. Most guidance is warm, with 700
mb temperatures around 0C, and could impact precipitation
type...will it be rain or snow or a mix throughout the weekend.
If it can fall as snow, portions of the area could see
significant snowfall. But it is too early at this point to put
totals out there.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

MVFR cigs will break for KCOS and KPUB around 20z though clouds
will increase again during the afternoon as another round of
showers pushes off the mountains during the late afternoon and
evening. Brief rain with MVFR cigs will be possible at both
terminals with cigs redeveloping in light upslope flow
overnight. Cigs are expected top drop into the MVFR category for
KPUB but could drop into the IFR and even LIFR category for KCOS
after 06z. Cigs should break a little earlier for both terminals
on Monday.

KALS will see increasing southwest winds this afternoon with
gusts up to 35 kts possible through early evening. Mid and high
level clouds will thicken but remain VFR through the evening
before winds decrease overnight and clouds clear out to the
east. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ224-
228>230-232-233.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ228>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT